"Someone Just Placed A Massive Bet That The Solar City, Tesla Deal Fails" (SCTY; TSLA)

The headline is a bit deceptive as we don't know if the trader has either a long position in the stock they are dirty hedging or a synthetic long they are trading around. SCTY $17.28 up 18 cents  TSLA $205.40 up $4.98.
From ZeroHedge:

Following June's proposal, the merger of kissing-cousins TSLA and
SCTY was confirmed in early August. Since then, the market has begun to
aggressively price out

Ford Motor Company Moves Into Bicycle Sharing (F)

From SFGate:

Ford buys Chariot, makes bike-sharing deal in alt-transport push

Ford Motor Co. has seen the future — and it’s not just in cars.


“We want to change the way the world moves,” CEO Mark Fields said
Friday outside San Francisco City Hall, announcing plans for
bike-sharing and commuter shuttle services as Ford seeks to transform
itself into a broader transportation company.


The

For 13th Straight month, Rural Economies Slump In Creighton University Economist Survey; Farm Loans Being Restructured

From the Omaha World-Herald:



Weak farm income is affecting loans in the rural Midwest, according
to a survey of bankers in the region, as the rural economy declined for
the 13th straight month and the outlook leading into 2017 remains
dreary.

With grain prices slumping, Creighton University economist
Ernie Goss said, farm income is slated to drop by 12 percent from 2015,
prompting “an

Panic Grips Eastern U.S. With Gasoline Supply Shortage On Horizon

East coast panic? I'll tell you where there's panic.
Russia just blocked access to PornHub.*

That said, gasoline prices have jumped the last couple days:



FinViz

From OilPrice:

A gasoline pipeline that was shut down
for repairs after it leaked last week may threaten the regular supply
of the fuel for 50 million people in the eastern U.S. as the deadline
for its restart was postponed for

Tesla Responds in Spat With Former Partner Mobileye (MBLY; TSLA)

For folks catching up before the weekend, Tesla has decided to go with radar rather than LIDAR (laser light).
NVIDIA smiles.

From Reuters via Fortune:

Mobileye had said that it broke ties with Tesla over safety.



(Reuters) – Tesla Motors on Thursday said its former
camera supplier Mobileye disparaged the safety of Tesla’s assisted
driving technology Autopilot after learning the carmaker

"US farmland prices set course for third year of decline"

As we've been saying for years, most recently in February's "USDA Chief Economist Makes A Case For Farmland ":




It's too early.
Even though we think we'll see some upward price pressure [on crops] come late
summer, after a meandering downtrend, the reality of farmland investment
is that it is only worth a multiple of the cash flow.
(unless you're on the edge of a metro area and have some

Deutsche Bank: How Big A Hole Could A Fine Blow In The Balance Sheet?

Following up on "Deutsche Bank Is Asked to Pay $14 Billion to Resolve U.S. Probe Into Mortgage Securities (DB)".
From Breakingviews:

Smaller fine might still force Deutsche fire sale

A few billion dollars more or less can make a big difference to
Deutsche Bank’s future. The German lender insisted on Sept. 15 that it
wouldn’t pay nearly as much as the $14 billion (12.5 billion euro)

Crispin Odey Is Getting Crushed

From Business Insider:

Bubbles, unpopular politicians, and fighting the Fed: A $9 billion hedge fund just gave an epic excuse for poor performance

Crispin Odey is having a tough year.


His UK-based hedge fund is down about 35% this year through
August, according to an investor letter. The firm manages around
$8.9 billion.


And Odey is blaming central bankers, and in particular low

Going Cashless In Australia

From The Daily Reckoning:

Pablo & Rusty’s is a successful, Sydney based coffee roaster.
They have recently opened a new location in Brisbane where they are
trialling something different: they do not take cash.


The only accepted payment methods are credit cards, phones or smart
coffee cups —yes, those colourful cups with a chip that are springing at
coffee shops everywhere.


Wait, no cash

"Deutsche Bank Is Asked to Pay $14 Billion to Resolve U.S. Probe Into Mortgage Securities" (DB)

After hours the stock is down 7% ($1.03) at $13.73.
From the Wall Street Journal:

Figure represents government’s opening bid; ultimate settlement could be much lower 

The U.S. Justice Department proposed that Deutsche Bank AG
pay $14 billion to settle a set of high-profile mortgage-securities
probes stemming from the financial crisis, according to people familiar
with the matter, a number

"What If Urban Sprawl Is the Only Realistic Way to Create Affordable Cities?"

From Real Time Economics:

Building suburbs makes cities more affordable than building towers, according to research released Wednesday




Building sprawling suburbs is better at making cities affordable than
building tall towers, according to research released Wednesday.


Environmentalists, urban planners and economists are pushing cities
such as New York and San Francisco to build more

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

Originally conceived by Professor (economic history) Carlo Cipolla, U Cal.-Berekley, d.2000.

The first basic law of human stupidity
The second basic law
The third (and golden) basic law
Frequency distribution
The power of stupidity
The fourth basic law
The fifth basic law


The first basic law of human stupidity asserts without ambiguity that: 




Always and inevitably everyone underestimates

"Tesla Sues Oil Industry Exec It Says Pretended To Be Elon Musk To Gain Secrets"

From Forbes:

As if figuring out what caused a SpaceX rocket to explode, pulling
off a merger with SolarCity and raising funds to complete a host of
ambitious Tesla Motors projects weren’t enough, Elon Musk appears to have yet another matter to resolve.


Tesla is suing an executive of an oil pipeline services company,
claiming that he tried to impersonate Musk in an email message. His
goal,

Shipping: "Mega-Ships May Be Too Big NOT to Fail"

From Bloomberg View:

It was always going to be tough for the world's container shipping
lines -- accustomed to decade after decade of growth in the volume of
video-game consoles, auto parts, furniture, frozen seafood and all
manner of other things transported in boxes across the sea -- to adjust
to a slowdown in global trade.

What has
made it a whole lot tougher is that, not long before

"Wall Street’s Insatiable Lust: Data, Data, Data"

We've been posting on the phenomena for a half-decade, since some ex-Google guys started collecting free-to-download weather data and figured the easiest way to make money off it was to peddle crop insurance. They ended up selling themselves to Monsanto for $930 million. Here's an overview of the opportunity from a few years ago:
McKinsey: Monetizing Freely Available Data Worth $3.2-$5.4Trillion

"Wall Street’s No Frills Investment Banker Sealed Monsanto-Bayer $66B Deal"

From Fox Business:

The announced mega merger between German chemical giant Bayer AG and U.S. pharmaceutical powerhouse Monsanto (MON)
has Wall Street buzzing about a banker who usually shuns the spotlight
but is a key player in some of the financial industry’s top deals.

That banker, Michael Kramer of Ducera Partners, served as Monsanto’s
lead adviser, and is credited with shaping the

World Out Of Whack: Aussie Banks

From Capitalist Exploits:

Market dislocations occur when financial markets, operating under
stressful conditions, experience large widespread asset mispricing.

Welcome to this week’s edition of “World Out Of Whack” where
every Wednesday we take time out of our day to laugh, poke fun at
and present to you absurdity in global financial markets in all it’s
glorious insanity.

While we enjoy a

"Wells Fargo’s Week Just Went From Bad To Preet" (WFC)

From DealBreaker:

We
are in day six of Wells Fargo’s precipitous fall from grace and it’s
beginning to seem like the bank is in a self-ideated nightmare without
end. And it just keeps getting scarier.


Revelations of bold, dumb and endemic fraud and turnover in its community banking division gave way to reports of oddly-timed golden “retirement” parachutes, gave way to announcements of

More Delivering Alpha Conference--Elliott Management's Paul Singer:"...sell long-term bonds is my outright recommendation"

From Pension Pulse:

Delivering Alpha 2016? 

 Patti Domm of CNBC reports, Bond yields spike as delivering alpha investors voice negative views:


Comments from major investors at the Delivering Alpha conference added
fuel to an already sour mood in markets and concerns that the world's
central banks just can't get it right.

"With the rates that currently exist in global bond markets, the

Market Folly's "Delivering Alpha Conference Notes 2016: Singer, Dalio, Chanos, Miller & More"

From Market Folly:

CNBC & Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha Conference is underway and below are some notes.  This post will be updated throughout the day as the various speakers/panels are ongoing:

Delivering Alpha Conference Notes 2016

Paul Singer (Elliott Associates):  Said that it's a "very
dangerous time in global markets" right now.  Argued central bank
independence doesn't

South Korea Continues Intimidation Against the North and Kim Jong-un

Following up on yesterday's "South Korea Grows Weary Of North and Kim Jong Un, Says Will Reduce Pyongyang ‘to Ashes’":

From The Express:

South Korea to blare POP MUSIC into North Korea to take down Kim Jong-un




The bizarre tactic has been proposed in response to yet another nuclear test by the aggressive maverick state, which has put the world on red alert. 





–– ADVERTISEMENT ––




Frontrun the Bank of England for Fun and Profit

Hey, it worked with the ECB.*
From FT Alphaville:

Confusion and the BoE’s corporate bond buying scheme

This is on the back of the Bank of England’s release of some more
info on its Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (CBPS) on the 12th. From that:

We will look to purchase, via the CBPS, a portfolio of up
to £10bn of sterling investment grade bonds representative of issuance
by firms making a

"Accounting", The Virtual Reality Game, Will Be Released Before Month-End!

Can you feel the electricity?

From the official website:

This is Accounting for HTC Vive.

A complimentary VR game by Crows Crows Crows designed with Squanchtendo, available THIS MONTH!!

Want to hear the MOMENT this comes out? Sign up to the Crows Crows Crows email list!...
HT to The Creators Project who write:

This VR Game About Accounting Is Actually Pretty Twisted

The magic ingredient to

"There’s a $300 Billion Exodus From Money Markets Ahead"

Former Bloombergian, now Villein, Alexandra Scaggs has written about this a couple times e.g. "Dollar surge pricing will be in effect through October".
It's kind of a big deal.

From Bloomberg:



Final wave of cash set to move from prime, muni funds


Shift seen before Oct. 14 compliance date for floating NAVs




With a seismic overhaul of the $2.6 trillion money-market industry
weeks away

Farmland REITs: "Farmland Partners eyes more deals - even after American Farmland purchase" (FPI)

From a July 2014 post:

...Gladstone Land is the other publicly traded vehicle. There a a few private partnerships that let in outsiders.
In February 2011 I noted:

...We've been following this trend for the last three years and have been asked when will it top?


One sign will be when Optima Fund Management brings their American Farmland Company public, still a few years away....
Optima have

Risk: The Story Behind an Unbelievable Photograph

From Vintage Everyday:

(click to enlarge)



Test
pilot George Aird - flying a English Electric Lightning F1 - ejected
from his English Electric

 Lightning F1 aircraft at a fantastically low
altitude in Hatfield, Hertfordshire 13th September 1962.

In 1962 in Hertfordshire, England, a tractor driver working on a tomato
farm heard a funny noise behind him, and turned round to look. A

The FT's Izabella Kaminska Asks: What's The Problem With Uber?


 "If we don't get the (autonomous car) software thing nailed, we're not going to be around much longer," 

-Travis Kalanick, CEO, Uber

 interview, August 18, 2016



"I love [self driving cars] all day long," he said. "The Uber
experience is expensive because it's not just the car but the other dude
in the car. When there's no other dude in the car, the cost [of taking
an Uber] gets cheaper

TIAA-CREF sub. Buys A Chunk Of Australia's Largest Wheat Grower

From the Australian Financial Review via Farmlandgrab:

Financial Review | 4 September 2016 
 
Australia's largest wheat grower sells to US Westchester




by Matthew Cranston

 

US giant TIAA's Westchester has purchased a major part of northern NSW
cropping farm Milton Downs from Australia's biggest wheat grower
Greentree Farming for a figure some estimate to be in the vicinity of
$50

"Short-Seller Chanos Calls Tesla-SolarCity Merger 'Crazy': CNBC Conference" (TSLA; SCTY)

From Reuters:

The prominent short-seller Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, called the proposed merger of Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA.O) and SolarCity Corp (SCTY.O) "crazy," noting that the combined company would need constant access to capital markets.


Chanos
said it would be the "height of folly" for Tesla shareholders to vote
to bail out SolarCity, which he added has an "uneconomic"

"Stocks Selling Again; This Is What Volatility Looks Like"

S&P 500  -33.67 (-1.56%)
DJIA        -249.52 (-1.36%)

From MoneyBeat:

No, that isn’t all.


After Monday’s rally, which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average pick
up 240 points on the day, many figured the selloff was already over.
Yet, U.S. stocks are selling off again sharply on Tuesday amid
bothersome questions about stock valuations, central-bank limitations,
and the state of the economy

South Korea Grows Weary Of North and Kim Jong Un, Says Will Reduce Pyongyang ‘to Ashes’

From South Korea's Yonhap News Agency:

N.K. NEWS
S. Korea unveils plan to raze Pyongyang in case of signs of nuclear attack

The disclosure of the detailed bombing operation came after the
Defense Ministry reported the "Korea Massive Punishment &
Retaliation" (KMPR) to the National Assembly last week in response to
the North's fifth nuclear weapon test.

"The defense ministry's
operational

"Goldman Lowers Odds of September Hike to 25% from 40%"

From Barron's Income Investing:

Seeing “no clear signal” of a September rate hike in the most
recent cluster of speeches from Federal Reserve officials — including Fed Governor Lael Brainard‘s speech Wednesday — economists at Goldman Sachs have lowered their expectations for a rate hike in September to just 25% from 40%.

The team, led by Jan Hatzius, wrote late Monday:


Based on the June dot

"Adblock Plus now sells ads"

From The Verge:

Uh, okay


Adblock Plus is launching a new service that... uh, puts more ads on your screen.



Rather than stripping all ads from the internet forever,
Adblock Plus is hoping to replace the bad ads — anything it deems too
big, too ugly, or too intrusive — with good ads, ones that are smaller,
subtler, and theoretically much less annoying.



It’ll begin doing that through an

FedWatch: "Much Noise, Weak Signal"

From Marc to Market:
















Our approach to Fed-watching is clear:
 Among the cacophony of voices, the Troika of Fed leadership, Yellen,
Fischer and Dudley provide the clearest signal. They are most often on message, and their
comments have been the best indications of policy.   



Remember at the end of last summer; Dudley
said a rate hike was less compelling.  This foretold
the

"Australia's property market is just SIX WEEKS away from collapsing, says respected U.S. think tank"

Yeah but what time on Oct. 24?
You can probably tell the headline is from the Daily Mail:


Australia's property market is six weeks from collapse, U.S. think tank says
Group says bank policy changes could see decline in foreign investment
'We estimate Australia has six weeks... to turn this situation around,' it says
But leading economists say article was no more than 'sensational headline'

"No significant growth expected in insurance & reinsurance: Munich Re"

The big guys are putting their efforts into governments and supranational orgs. If they can get the product mandated it would be a dream come true.
From Artemis:

Over the next few years reinsurance giant Munich Re does not expect any
significant growth in insurance or reinsurance demand, the company’s
Board said today, which suggests that with the excess capital sloshing
around the market

"Are video games killing work for young men?"

From The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Sep. 1:
ChicagoBoothReview

Video killed the radio star
How games, phones, and other tech innovations are changing the labor force

This essay is adapted from the speech given at the 527th Convocation at Booth this past June. 
 


The first big graduation I remember was for my bachelor’s degree. My
mom was there, and she had her Polaroid

"IEA releases Oil Market Report for September"

Have I mentioned there seems to be a lot of the stuff sloshing around?
Brent down $1.03 at $47.29; WTI down $1.08 at $45.21

From the International Energy Agency:


Global oil demand slowing at a faster pace than predicted

13 September 2016


Global oil demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than initially predicted, the newly released IEA Oil Market Report  (OMR)
for September informs

"US Seeks Scalps in Och-Ziff Bribery Investigation" (OZM)

Here are a couple of our previous OZM posts to give readers an indication of what we're dealing with here.

From August, 2015:
Och-Ziff Hedge Fund In Talks To Settle Charges It Financed Zimbabwe Torturers

That was a followup to 2012's:
Och-Ziff Capital Management Group Supplied the Money that Kept Mugabe in Power

Och-Ziff are scum.

A major piece from the Financial Times, September 12:


US

Climateer Line of the Day Runner Up: Credit Where Credit Is Due Edition

Only because this morning's winner was so funny did this, from Pension Partners, come in second:

"Since 1970, the
average returns following 90%+ downside days are not only positive but
higher than your typical day. It is higher not only the following day
but also the following month and year. And as the second table below
illustrates, it is more likely to be positive as well."

-from

"The More Cash People Have, the Happier They Are"

From the Wall Street Journal:

Happiness may not be about how much overall wealth you have, but how much cash you have on hand

Conventional wisdom says you should be investing as much of your
excess money as you possibly can. That may be the best path to greater
wealth. But it may not be the best path to happiness.

In a previous article we looked at a broad range of research about money and

A Deep Dive Into Spooky City: Peter Thiel and Palantir

From the Baffler:

Improv-da
How Palantir has made corporate orthodoxy out of experimental theater


Palantir Technologies,
the multi-billion-dollar Palo Alto–based data-analysis software company
founded in 2004 with CIA seed money, gives its new employees a reading
list. One assignment is Lawrence Wright’s The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11,
which feeds directly into the

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report: Soybeans Get Hammered, Wheat Up, Corn Meh




Last
Chg


Corn
339-4-1-4


Soybeans
963-6-16-4


Wheat
407-6+4-2

Agrimoney quotes

From Inside Futures:

WHEAT: The
U.S. 2016/17 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last
month. The marketing year average price received by producers is lowered
$0.10 per bushel at the midpoint to a range of $3.30 to $3.90. The
reduction is due to lower than expected prices to date.

"The Cultural Apocalypse Already Happened, and Other News"

The Paris Review is not happy.
From The Paris Review:

The National Magazine Awards have announced that they’re
suspending their fiction category next year. You can probably guess why:
“Only fourteen magazines submitted entries in the category in 2016—a fraction of the number of participants in other categories,”
Sid Holt, the chief executive of the American Society of Magazine
Editors, wrote

"Nvidia SEC Filing Raises Specter Of An Acquistion: Nomura" (NVDA)

The stock has reversed this morning's losses and is up 31 cents at $59.83
From Investors Business Daily, Sept. 9:

Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA),
which has been trading at record highs the past month, filed a routine
S-3 shelf registration statement on Tuesday with the Securities and
Exchange Commission that investment bank Nomura says could be a
harbinger of possible acquisitions.


The filing

Soon There Will Be Three Publicly Traded Gene Editing CRISPR Co's.

In yesterday's Technology Review's "50 Smartest Companies 2016" I mentioned my initial surprise when reviewing the second half of the list. What I neglected to point out was the reason for that surprise.
There are a lot of companies doing work in the biological sciences that were new to me, and I consider myself pretty darn fashion-forward, thank you very much. Here's another one.

From Xconomy

Ahead of Today's Report: "AM markets: grain, cotton futures slip as Wasde looms"




Last
Chg


Corn
340-2-0-6


Soybeans
975-6-4-4


Wheat
402-0-1-4


From Agrimoney:


That's more like it.



That is, corn and
soybean futures headed lower in
early deals, as is more typical at this time of year, with the US harvest
hotting up, bringing with it a jump in supplies and allowing the removal from
prices of the last vestiges of risk premium.



"The seasonal tendencies are for

The Message Embedded In Volatility Readings

From FT Alphaville:

Vol is low, not cheap

We’ve talked about how quiet the market is already.


Complacency is becoming an ever more common hit in our inboxes, and we assume not just because of herding instinct.


It’s also because, as we already quoted Citi:
“Current vols are a strong outlier, not just compared to 2016, but
against the average for all Augusts since 2000 (see charts 2, 3

Climateer Line of the Day: "The Operation Was A Success But..." Edition


Via Motherboard:

 

“The drill went as designed, but we had collateral damage”

-Spokesman on the fire extinguisher test that severely damaged ING 

Bank’s main data center in Bucharest, Romania over the weekend.

SpaceX and The Business of Insuring Stuff That Blows Up

From Quartz:

How to insure something that blows up once every twenty times you use it


Sophisticated satellites cost hundreds of
millions of dollars and are assembled in clean rooms by technicians in
full bodysuits. And then, to fly them into space, we strap them onto
enormous rockets that explode spectacularly once in every 20 takeoff
attempts.


Who’s on the hook when things go wrong?